The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was in effect from 1994 to 2020 before being replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), brought several benefits to both Canada and Mexico. Most of which enriched the two nations, but is there an argument that the central American nations are left behind and if so why. The immigration crisis leading up the President Trump’s election has made one thing clear. The United States of America is walking distance from most pasts of Central America, however hard and arduous it maybe. There is enough apocalyptic conditions that people experience locally for them to be motivated enough to work hard for a better life. For most westerners, and most citizens of the US, the the risks of the migration has not really dawned on us. There is a time to be self-protective and there is also a time to lend a helping hand, that uplifts everyone, and is not just a one-way grant.
So, apart of sending migrants back to where they came from, is there an alternative that is available to us? Is there a peaceful process, and a way to alleviate the suffering in Central America.
Unauthorized immigrant population in the US
As of mid-2022, the estimated unauthorized immigrant population in the United States was approximately 11.2 million individuals. The top countries of origin and their respective shares of this population are as follows.
| Country | Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Population | Percentage of Total Unauthorized Immigrants |
| Mexico | 5200000 | 46.00% |
| Guatemala | 790000 | 7.00% |
| Honduras | 620000 | 6.00% |
| El Salvador | 560000 | 5.00% |
| India | 430000 | 4.00% |
| Colombia | 180000 | 2.00% |
| Ecuador | 160000 | 1.00% |
| Peru | 150000 | 1.00% |
| Canada | 100000 | 1.00% |
| Nicaragua | 100000 | 1.00% |
These figures indicate that Mexico remains the largest source of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S., comprising nearly half of the total unauthorized population. Central American countries such as Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador also contribute significantly. In contrast, countries like Canada, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Peru each account for a smaller share, approximately 1% or less of the total unauthorized immigrant population.
US trade with Mexico and Central American countries
But comparing the huge exports that enables Mexico through the USMCA, what else can this country do to alleviate this illegal migration. My guess is – next to nothing. Bad actors will be bad actors.
| Country | GDP (Approx.) | Total Exports to the U.S. (Approx.) | Strengths | Weaknesses |
| Mexico | $1.6 Trillion | $454.8 Billion | Large manufacturing base, strong trade ties (USMCA), energy sector, tourism | Income inequality, crime, dependence on U.S. economy |
| Guatemala | $95 Billion | NA | Agriculture (coffee, bananas), remittances, manufacturing | High poverty, reliance on remittances |
| Panama | $80 Billion | NA | Banking, finance, logistics, Panama Canal revenues | Dependence on external trade |
| Costa Rica | $78 Billion | NA | Tourism, high-tech industries, political stability | High public debt, reliance on exports |
| Honduras | $35 Billion | NA | Agriculture, textiles, remittances | Crime, political instability |
| El Salvador | $32 Billion | NA | Manufacturing, dollarized economy, remittances | Low economic growth, crime |
| Nicaragua | $15 Billion | NA | Agriculture, gold exports, manufacturing | Political instability, high poverty |
| Belize | $2.5 Billion | NA | Tourism, fisheries, offshore banking | Small market, climate risks |
| Colombia | $350 Billion | NA | Oil exports, coffee, coal, strong services sector | Income inequality, drug-related violence, reliance on oil |
| Ecuador | $120 Billion | NA | Oil exports, agriculture (bananas, seafood), dollarized economy | Political instability, dependence on oil exports |
| Peru | $250 Billion | NA | Mining (copper, gold), agriculture, tourism | Infrastructure challenges, reliance on commodity exports |
But there is a huge case to be made to transfer some of the trade that is currently enjoyed by Mexico, to further down the border to these Central American countries, who would be content with possibly even a small fraction of the trade that Mexico enjoys. Illegal migration from Mexico is far too easy – and people will avail of it. But giving a choice to the people of El Salvador or Honduras might change the country for the better for forever.
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